Bitcoin and Ethereum traded flats on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released minutes of the July meeting. The market was hoping for volatility, but there was little response in the crypto market.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left a rate that remains unchanged from 4.25% to 4.5% in July. The minutes confirmed that Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed and preferred a 25 bps cut.
FOMC minutes fail to move crypto market
The Fed described inflation as “a little upward,” saying growth “easy” in the first half of 2025. Officials reaffirmed their 2% inflation target and pledged flexibility in the event of risks.
July FOMC Minutes: Risks of inflation exceeding duties and officials warn about assets valuation
Polymarket Opds supports two rate cuts in 2025. +140 is the most likely scenario of this year. pic.twitter.com/ES1L2MPYJY
– Shay Boloor (@stocksavvyshay) August 20, 2025
The market was already priced 83% of the time of interest rate cuts in September. With no fresh signal in minutes, Crypto Traders had little reason to rediscover the risk. Now, attention has shifted to Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.
However, the silence in the crypto market reflects a major change. Traders are watching Donald Trump’s escalating tariff measures.
Recent tariffs on semiconductors, electronics and steel have increased costs for global producers. Sony, for example, has increased the PlayStation price by $50 after tariffs on Japanese electronics. Brazil and India are also facing US trade punishments, raising global tensions.
Tariffs complicate the Fed’s path. They apply inflationary pressure, but also proportional to growth and exports. This balances policymakers between two opposing forces. This is more difficult to deal with than a standard economic slowdown.
The minutes of the FOMC are prepared to reflect the meeting in question, but they are undoubtedly used as signaling tools… Inflation risk > employment risk is a key point… This is at least not a massive reduction in a hurry…
– Michael Brown (@mrmbrown) August 20, 2025
Bigger Images – Macro Collision Course
Clashes between US monetary policy and Trump’s trade agenda set a conflict course. The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut fees to support slowing growth, or keep them high as rates push prices up. Both options have a risk of missing one side of the dual mandate.
In the crypto market, this uncertainty is greater than the Fed’s careful July statement. Investors view trade policies as wildcards that can increase inflation, increasing global growth rates and restructuring safe hull flows.
Until transparency occurs, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain bound to range, waiting for the next critical macro signal.
When Trump’s tariffs appear on the central stage, they first appear in beincrypto after shrugging on feeding.
