Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler shares an impressive analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term investor behavior.
According to Adler, when Bitcoin price reached $118,000, a significant decline in long-term investors (LTH) supply began. Analysts noted that there has been a decline in BTC of around 52,000 so far, and said they interpreted this as a change by long-term investors in distribution rather than accumulation.
Adler argues that this change in balance replicates the long-term investor pattern seen when Bitcoin rose from $65,000 to $100,000 in the fall of 2024. According to analysts, this distribution process accelerates as prices rise, like in previous macrocycles.
Another notable factor in Adler’s assessment was volatility. Bitcoin’s quarterly volatility fell to 70%. This rate is very close to the 62% local low seen at $26,000 in September 2023. Adler said this low volatility is an indicator of the large capital to enter the market, making Bitcoin a “slower” asset. The highest volatility this cycle can be seen was 143%, but in previous cycles this rate reached 236%.
*This is not investment advice.
