Despite its intense political and economic agenda, July may continue to be a historically low month for the cryptocurrency market. This summer could be as quiet as the previous year, according to a new report from Vetle Lunde, director of research at K33 Research.
Recalling that July was a period of uncertainty in the United States known as the “Trump Trade,” Runde turned his attention to key agenda items such as the budget bill, resuming tariff decisions, and a crypto-related executive order calendar. But despite all these potential price movements, past Julis has also been notable for low-capacity trading periods.
“In July 2022, Three Arrows Capital and celsius went bankrupt. Last year there were events such as an attempt to assassinate Trump and Biden’s resignation. At the same time, BTC distributions from Gox Mt. Gox and sales by the German government put pressure on the market.
So, what is the agenda for July?
- July 4: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget bill, which is expected to be signed by President Trump and could increase the US budget deficit to $3.3 trillion, could come into effect. This could have a positive short-term impact on digital assets such as Bitcoin, where supplies are limited.
- July 9th: The 90-day customs moratorium will end. Trump is expected to take new trade measures against certain countries. This could put pressure on the market.
- July 22nd: Final evaluation and proposal submission date for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), which was signed in March and will be created with approximately 200,000 btc (approximately $21 billion) of US crypto assets.
The fact that details of this spare have not been shared with the public since March increased uncertainty. Lunde warned investors that they could make an announcement about the issue at any time.
According to Lunde, Bitcoin is the highest ever 3% off, but its funding rate is just 3%.
“It may be lazy to assume this summer will be as quiet as the previous year. But my current basic case is that nothing new will happen. So the best strategy is to be patient and hold on to existing positions,” he said.
*This is not investment advice.
