The imminent real estate crisis will make gold and bitcoin shine

The economy moves in cycles, and one of the most powerful is the highly called “real estate cycle” that lasts around 20 years. In 2026, the current cycle will be the biggest point, leading to a real estate crisis that will benefit gold and other value reserve assets (BTC).

Historically, gold tends to reach its maximum points several years after the peak price of real estate and action. And if the story was repeated during the current cycle, it was launched in 2012. Gold could reach the next maximum around 2031.

This probably means that Gold prices can be up to 4.5 timesas happened in the previous cycle.

Alan Longbon, a financial analyst who specializes in real estate, explains that the real estate cycle is based on the income laws. This establishes that real estate will acquire all the economic benefits. That is, regardless of what improvements are made to improve productivity, The benefits tend to focus on the value of the soil. This principle acts as the gravity of physics in economics: invisible but determined.

As a result, real estate prices rose for around 14-18 years, driven by economic growth and easy credit. They then reach a point where private debt is unsustainable and interest rates rise, causing corrections.

This pattern is more clearly shown in the following graph: It has been appearing repeatedly for over a centurystrengthened by demographics and financial factors.

The end of the current cycle is nearing, and it’s good for money

In that order of ideas and following the patterns, We are in the final stages of the current cyclewhen we reached the roof in 2026. According to Longbon, there are seven signs that indicate that. these are:

1. Home builders peak: ETF as XHB following the construction sector reached its largest in September 2024 and since He showed weakness. Another reference, Home Depot (HD), has dropped by more than 10% so far this year.
2. More flexible monetary policy: Before the sector slows, the government usually lowers interest rates, makes credit more flexible and gives temporary impulses to the actions of the construction sector. However, this rebound is usually weaker than the previous rebound.
3. Home Price Pico: In the middle or end of 2026, lower rates are preferred. Historically, real estate peaks occur between June and October. Prices are still rising, but growth is becoming weaker and weaker.
4. The largest in the stock market: It usually comes one year after the peak of the real estate. Another clear indication that the cycle is nearing its end.
5. Performance Curve Investment: It occurs when short-term profits are beyond the long term and predicts recession. There were already investments in 2023, but the one related is the second investment and has not yet occurred.
6. Official recession: Usually declared late, but starts before. The economy usually shows contraction for several months before it is officially recognized.
7. Pico of raw materials and gold: When the recession begins, gold tends to rise strongly, due to its role as a safe haven against economic uncertainty.

In fact, most of the previous points (except for the officially declared economic recession) have already been experienced since last year, ensuring that the current real estate cycle is over. Gold incentives that clearly show a relationship with the cycle.

For example, during the previous cycle, precious metals in 2011 reached a maximum of USD 1,800 when the real estate cycle touched the background after the 2008 real estate bubble burst.

Currently, gold is rising strongly, as can be seen in the following graph. So, if the story is repeated and the employer is maintained, the current price (approximately USD 3,400) It could reach over 15,000 USD in ounces around 2031according to Longbon’s analysis.

Although there is no guarantee for this, previous cycles give you the idea of ​​the possibility of gold behaviour and the moment when the next big maximum occurs.

But it’s not just money…

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest digital currency, could also benefit greatly from the end of the current real estate cycle. Like gold, BTC is recognized as a value reserve against scenarios of economic instability and loss of trust in the traditional financial system.

in fact, Bitcoin shows an increasing correlation with goldespecially in a time of global uncertainty. According to several analysts, there is a “new era of hard assets.” There, capital is trying to protect inflation, excessive debt and structural imbalances in large economies, as reported by encryption. In this context, Bitcoin has begun to attract the same type of institutional investment that has traditionally become gold.

The relevant fact is that Bitcoin “steals capital” into ETFs supported by gold, reflecting a shift in the preferences of some investors towards digital assets as a form of coverage. This trend not only allows Bitcoin to accompany gold on an upward cycle; But performance over a certain period is beyond that.

Furthermore, another important factor that can accelerate this dynamic is The debt crisis is coming in the US. North American countries face increasingly high public debt levels, with figures exceeding $37 billion and interest payments exceeding $1 billion per year.

This scenario is threatened by a loss of trust in the dollar as an asset of the global reserve, which has traditionally promoted both gold and bitcoin.

Essentially, excess funds in facility reserves are added to the growing demand for decentralized equipment; You can guide the important parts of capital towards Bitcoin. The movement would be particularly strong if the Federal Reserve was forced to resume its financial flexibility policy and face a recession, as it historically emerged after the peak of the real estate cycle.

So, gold remains a classic reference in times of crisis, but Bitcoin has placed itself as its digital alternative. Both assets may see a noticeable increase towards the end of the current cycle.

Understanding the real estate cycle allows you to predict significant economic changes, such as price movements for reserve assets. If the pattern is repeated, we represent a potential opportunity for those who prepare in advance, years after a new rebound in gold and bitcoin prices.

This is defended by The author Robert Kiyosaki bestseller «Riko’s father, poor father» predicts a global financial collapse, We recommend using gold, silver and bitcoin “If you want to be richer when the global debt bubble explodes.”