- Bitcoin prices will take on around $95,000 on Monday after falling nearly 3% over the weekend.
- President Trump has acknowledged the possibility of a recession, but is aiming to announce at least one trade deal this week, the Wall Street Journal reports.
- On-chain data shows that BTC holders are realizing profits and increasing downward pressure on prices.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices have hovered around $95,000 as of Monday’s writing after facing a pullback of nearly 3% over the weekend. US President Donald Trump has acknowledged the possibility of a recession, but is aiming to announce at least one trade deal this week, the Wall Street Journal reports. On-chain data shows that BTC holders are realizing profits and increasing downward pressure on prices.
Mixed signals about the economy, trade transactions increase risk-off sentiment
Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Report On Sunday, President Trump said he was downplaying concerns about a potential economic downturn while pursuing aggressive trade and fiscal policy.
The report explains that the White House aims to announce at least one deal with a country that is trying to escape high tariffs next week, according to senior management officials.
Despite internal and external criticism from Warren Buffett, Trump continues to use tariffs as leverage to boost domestic manufacturing. A legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, broke the silence of his tariffs and criticised protectionist policies over the weekend.
“Trade should not be a weapon,” Buffett said at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting.
Meanwhile, Congress is working on tax and spending bills that could provide some degree of stability, despite tensions with China and uncertain economic signals remaining. Additionally, in an interview aired Sunday, Trump acknowledged the possibility of a recession, but claimed that his policies would drive a boom in the US, shunning current economic trends from former US president Biden’s legacy.
There are signs of market resilience, like recent stock market profits in April and better than expected US employment numbers, suggesting that the economy is still well maintained, but economists are concerned that ongoing trade policies and tariffs could ultimately slow the economy down.
This uncertainty implies risk-off sentiment in the market. This doesn’t work for risky assets like Bitcoin. As the economy weakens, investors can pull back from unstable assets like Bitcoin in favor of safer options like gold.
Bitcoin holders realize profits and increase sales pressure
According to Santiments’ Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL), Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics show that they reserve several profits, according to Santiments’ Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL), which calculates the daily network-level return on investment (ROI) based on Coin’s on-chain transaction volume.
The powerful spikes of the NPL of coins show that their owners on average sell bags with great profits. A strong dip on the other hand means that coin owners on average achieve losses, suggesting panic sales and investors surrender.
The metric showed multiple spikes last week, indicating that holders on average sell packages significantly with profits, increasing sales pressure.
BTC NPL chart. Source: Santiment.
However, institutional investors are keen to Bitcoin despite the owner booking profits. According to SoSovalue data, the US Spot Bitcoin Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a total inflow of $1.81 billion last week after the previous $3.06 billion inflow. If these inflows continue and strengthen, Bitcoin prices could rise even further.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETFS Weekly Chart. Source: SosoValue
Bitcoin’s technical outlook suggests a bearish fleeting in the short term
Bitcoin price action on the 4-hour chart shows the weaknesses of the relative strength index (RSI) momentum indicator. The highs in BTC prices formed on Friday do not reflect the lows in RSI over the same period. This development is called bearish divergence and often leads to trend reversals or short-term pullbacks. Additionally, the fantastic oscillator indicators also fell below neutral zero on Sunday, suggesting a bearish trend in the future.
As BTC continues its downward movement, the next four-hour support level could expand the retest of around $92,580.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
Looking at the daily charts, the price of Bitcoin was retested and rejected on Friday, centering on a daily resistance level of $97,700. It then fell by nearly 3% over the next two days. As of Monday’s writing, BTC is trading for around $95,000.
As BTC continues to be fixed, retesting the next major support level at $90,000 could potentially widen the decline.
RSI on the daily chart reads 60 after being rejected from an excess level of 70 on Friday, showing intense momentum. A RSI below the neutral level of 50 suggests a bearish momentum and a decline in Bitcoin prices. Additionally, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is trying to flip a bearish crossover, which, if it occurs, gives a sales signal and indicates a downward trend.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
However, if BTC recovers and breaks above daily resistance at $97,700, it could extend the profits to retest psychological resistance at $100,000.
