This is a segment of the Forward Guidance Newsletter. Subscribe to read the full edition.
I have been receiving LEDN CIO John Glover’s Bitcoin Price technical analysis by email for a while.
But I finally managed to catch up with him directly at the Digital Assets Summit.
Glover, former management director at TD Securities and Barclays, predicts BTC prices using Elliott Wave theory (examining price patterns related to changes in investors’ emotions and psychology).
Essentially, the theory is: A deep, fluid market moves in the direction of major trends with five waves (three “motivation” phases pushing up prices and two downward “correction” phases pushing up prices). There are three waves that are opposite to that trend.
Traders may use this theory along with other technical analysis to identify possible entry and exit points.
Last week, we probably approached the end of Wave 4 amid this wider upward trend in BTC prices that began at around $16,000 in 2023, according to Glover. He said the market was not moved by the pro-recognition statements that Donald Trump once recorded at the Blockworks meeting last week.
BTC performances from January 2023 onwards. Source: TradingView.
However, BTC saw an increase over the weekend. The price was $88,370 as of 2:10pm on Monday, but it was up 2.6% 24 hours ago.
Whether Wave 4 has officially ended or not, Glover expects Wave 5 to rise from $130,000 to $135,000 by the first quarter of 2026 to rise in BTC prices.
I asked Glover how Bitcoin is perceived by combos beyond a certain price level.
“We have deep liquidity, but we still have a full understanding of what it is and we don’t have enough participants for the (Bitcoin) who formed that view,” he said.
Those who believe in BTC are “digital gold” (and inflation hedge), which could be inflated the position of Bitcoin ETFs, for example, because prices have dropped. Those who are afraid that BTC has risen to around $109,000 may just be panicking “Trump Pump.”
“For me (Bitcoin) is digital gold, and once again, the traditional financial players enter, the gold tracking becomes much closer,” Glover added.
