5 things that need to happen for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000

Bitcoin price traded near $110,000 today as continued ETF inflows and support at $107,000 gained attention.

Demand for spot ETFs continues to dominate. BlackRock’s IBIT assets are approaching $100 billion, or about 799,000 BTC, as the largest U.S. fund conglomerate continues to concentrate supply.

Yesterday, U.S. spot products recorded $102 million in new net inflows, compared to only two days of outflows in the past 10 days. This is a reminder that clusters of flows, rather than single prints, tend to determine the sustainability of a trend.

Academic research on exchange-traded products shows that daily price movements often precede capital flows, documenting a lead lag between prices and flows, and creating reflexive feedback once momentum is built. This framework fits this quarter’s record, with multi-billion dollar flow days contributing to the rally’s extension during past breakouts.

On-chain rotation distribution shows strength, while mid-tier accumulation improved in October push. While ETF demand acted as the main absorber, long-term holders’ spending increased to new highs, a typical pattern in the late impulse period.

Cost-based clustering places dense realization support in the $107,000 to $109,000 range, with an air pocket towards $93,000 to $95,000 if that area fails on a closing basis.

Above spot, supply from previous buyers tends to resurface around $114,000 to $117,000, and profit-taking has capped the rally in recent weeks, as discussed in Glassnode’s latest weekly issue.

Derivatives add texture to the crash risk discussion.

According to Deribit, the 30-day DVOL index is still elevated compared to the previous month, and the 25-delta skew reversed from call-rich to put-rich during the stress episode before easing in the rebound.

Skews that go negative and then quickly turn positive tend to coincide with short-term drawdown windows as downside protection is bid up.

At the same time, funding and leverage remain subdued compared to past blow-off stages, making cascade-driven deleveraging from crowded long openings less likely. This combination represents vulnerability to shocks without the spark of extreme persistent leverage.

Liquidity tilts the balance towards Bitcoin over alternative beta even under stress.

US venues account for the largest share of market depth at 1%, offering a thicker top-of-book that absorbs flow more reliably than offshore venues. This layer concentration, along with the ETF wrapper’s steady creation and redemption mechanism, helps explain why BTC has weathered the macro earthquake this year with fewer drawdowns than many high-beta tokens.

Macros remain the main source of jump risk.

There were warnings that stock valuations were limited, and tariffs and trade themes were back on the front page as drivers for risk-off moves. Last week’s tariff headlines led to a mechanical deleveraging of cryptocurrencies, with tens of billions of dollars in reported liquidations as traders scrambled to rehedge. This background argues for widening short-term ranges and reassessing once flow and volatility data are reset after event risk.

Against this background, the path is divided into three clearly defined tracks.

If the spot closes above $117,000 during a multi-day period of net inflows for US ETFs, a continuation phase will begin, sustaining absorption ahead of distribution to long-term holders and re-engaging with October’s highs around $126,000.

If flows are mixed and the spot fluctuates between $107,000 and $126,000, while the average DVOL reverses and funding remains modest, the digester track remains in the base case.

If policy shock risk strengthens again, skew permanently turns put-rich, the ETF exhibits an outflow cluster, and spot closes below $107,000, a crash tail will emerge, exposing the realized cost gap from $93,000 to $95,000.

The street framework provides context, not direction.

Standard Chartered has set a limit of $150,000 to $200,000 in 2025 if demand for the ETF continues. Banks are also relying on a gold parity lens to cap through volatility-based comparisons, with gold prices near all-time highs near $3,700 an ounce. The usefulness of these goals will depend on whether ETF inflows can keep up the pace and whether the macro tail remains subdued.

Options and flow metrics help translate these situations into daily calls. Traders are watching to see if call congestion subsides as prices rise, or if downside hedges lead the tape as the macro date approaches.

DVOL spikes continue to mark jump windows, and this pattern is evident in Deribit’s term structure and risk reversals. With funds staying centered, there is less fuel for a forced sell and the pullback is closer to real support bands rather than a chaotic range.

Pre-checklists are narrow in scope and testable. ETF flow streaks set the tone, options skew indicates whether there is demand for crash insurance, and on-chain cost clusters mark zones where absorption will occur if the uptrend resumes after a shock.

Depth of liquidity in US venues rounds out the set, as a thin book on the rise increases lag risk and increases real-world volatility.

According to predictions that the payment balance will reach $1 trillion to $2 trillion by 2027, stablecoin piping will provide a medium-term tailwind to absorb demand in the risk-on phase as the payment balance expands.

This theme will not dictate the course of next week, but it does raise the cap on the amount of ETF and direct demand that the market can handle during future capital inflow cycles.

Therefore, the short-term map relies on two gates and one data series.

A hold above $107,000 will maintain range, and a close above $117,000 will bring multi-day ETF inflows back into high territory, with skew and DVOL determining whether the stress turns into a chaotic slide or a routine reset.