While there is data to support the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to rise in the short term, the possibility of a price decline by the end of the year remains strong.
In comments posted based on that premise, In terms of price, it is thought that a side stage of about 1 month is possible.it could even rebound to the mid-$70,000s.
The expert links his cautious stance to a simultaneous deterioration in liquidity in spot and futures markets. “I have never seen Bitcoin go up when both liquidity sources are bearish,” he said.
This can be seen in the following graph. Bitcoin flow modelan analyst-created index that measures the flow of capital into and out of the ecosystem.
Weak liquidity will prolong the downtrend
Based on this diagnosis, bitcoin bear market May be extended for several months. “The fourth quarter will be a good time for the downtrend to end and the bullish momentum to return in the first or second quarter of 2027,” Willy Wu said.
Regarding price levels, he said that around $45,000 corresponds to a “classic bear market low.” However, he clarified that this would depend on the global macroeconomic environment.
“Bitcoin was only present in the global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026,” the analyst commented. “If global macros break down, $30,000 will be the autumn support level and $16,000 will be the final line to sustain the uptrend,” he added.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been trading within a narrow range for most of the past three weeks, between $62,000 and $70,000. it is about Almost 50% lower than all-time high It reached $126,000 on October 6, 2025.
This Bitcoin rebound The situation worsened in late January when US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs. For imported products. Since then, the domestic stock market has also slowed down after setting new records.
The president also continued to announce new tariffs despite the court’s February 20 invalidation. This unpredictability of tariff policy and the uncertainty of its impact on the economy are causing market risk aversion. Additionally, this sentiment is driven by concerns that liquidity will shrink if interest rates are not lowered.
With autumn, Bitcoin repeats historically recorded patterns before and after halving. The currency always reaches the end of its bull cycle in the year following such an event, which happens every four years, and has since recorded a decline of around 80%. As reported by CriptoNoticias, this suggests that the current bear market is not over yet.
(Tag translation) Analysis and research
