Bitcoin is caught up in a strange balance. On the one hand, long-term holders are consistently aware of profits at a high level, turning age coins into profits at every opportunity.
Meanwhile, short-term holders have barely cut past broken and show little confidence in their past, resulting in little confidence in their profits or losses. This two-speed market defines the current environment and helps explain why the rally feels heavy and why pullbacks don’t spiral at all in the surrender.
Bitcoin prices exceeded $117,120 on September 18th, spurring volatility from the latest Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although volatility ahead of the breakout was over $115,000, Bitcoin has risen modestly over the past month, rising nearly 24% since the start of the year. Beneath its gentle appearance is a divided story.
The long-term holder SOPR that measures whether or not more than 155 days of coins are spent on profit or loss is at 1.78. That’s far above its historic median. In other words, mature supply is steadily gaining profits and is colliding with the market.
Meanwhile, the short-term holder SOPR, which tracks the profitability of fresh coins, is flat at 1.00. This level is essentially destroyed. The average short-term coin is sold at roughly the same price you get.
This disparity between LTHS and STHS creates an imbalance in the way meetings are developed. When LTHS is sold on profit, they provide a continuous supply flow that they have to absorb. If short-term participants also sell with profit, the demand is wide and buyers are enthusiastic, so these moments often coincide with trend growth, so the market can handle it. However, when short-term holders are destroyed, demand will be narrowed and long-term delivery presses will be in demand in the market.
Data over the past two months clearly demonstrates this imbalance. Over the past 60 days, long-term holders have achieved profits in 33 days compared to short-term holder profitability only 16 days. More importantly, there was 17 days when long term holders were sold on profit while short term holders were sold on losses. That’s the definition of the second-speed market. One cohort is confidently dropping off and another struggles to maintain the pace.
The impact on prices is subtle but important. The 30 and 90-day returns are positive (approximately +3.8% and +13.4%), but the pass is choppy. Each upward movement is filled with mature coins colliding with the market, and the rally becomes short-lived. Without stronger participation from short-term holders, these advances feel fragile. Short-term SOPR only showed short excursions above one, and failed to build a winning streak of the kind that showed momentum to retreat and earn a wide range of benefits.
The SOPR ratio, which is split over the long term in a short-term SOPR, captures this with a single metric. At 1.77, the ratio is steadily rising, indicating that longer-term holders have significantly increased profit per coin over new counterparts. Historically, such high ratios will digest the market’s mature supply without the help of fresh purchasing pressure. As long as that ratio doesn’t cool, the upside will carry out the risk of topping prematurely.
Volume Trend adds another layer. The last two weeks had slightly lower average spot volume compared to the previous two weeks. The price somehow managed to outperform the top, but as participation becomes less, the risk of a false breakout increases. Without heavier cash sales, shorter throttles and derivative-led gatherings could soon be reversed.
The fact that prices remain closely correlated with short-term SOPR suggests that there is a 30-day correlation of about 0.64. Still, if there is no width, those movements lack sustainability.
Bitcoin can be crushed high even as long-term sales rise, but their profits remain tactical. The meeting is uncertain until the short-term SOPR spends its duration of more than one. The signal to monitor is a multi-week stretch where short-term coins are consistently sold with profits. It would indicate an increase in demand and healthier progress. For now, this structure favors trading and sharp bursts of range, rather than extended uptrends.
Bitcoin is far from bearish, but it is limited. Profits are happening, but it’s a fierce battle as the other side is barely broken while one side of the market is cashing out. This two-speed construction will continue to shape the tape until demand increases or supply cooling.
The post-two-speed market had left Bitcoin earned between profits and hesitation.
