It may take a week Bitcoin Traders who will fully digest the impact of the first interest rate cuts in the Federal Reserve, according to Bitbank analyst Yuya Hasegawa.
“When risk-on emotions persist after the FOMC, this improvement in technical emotions is considered an additional tailwind (for Bitcoin), putting a $120,000 test in sight,” the Tokyo-based analyst said. Decryption. “If BTC succeeds in exceeding $120,000, a full retracement could ultimately focus. The market will probably digest for about a week, then return to normal, focusing on inflation and rate reduction.”
Next week will include planned remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and vice-chairman of superintendent Michelle W. Bowman on Tuesday. The revised dot plot, released this week by the Federal Open Market Committee, showed two more interest rate cuts in 2025, but Powell made no promises.
Traders read the nuance each time Powell or another member of the FOMC gives a speech. I look forward to the meeting in October. 72% of Myriad users own a forecast market Decryption Parent company Dastan expects another 25-based point cut, with nearly 11% expecting the Fed to not change at the penultimate meeting of the year.
Rate Cut Bull is shown even more strongly in the CME FedWatch tool. This estimates that 92% of Traders expect the Fed to approve another 25 point cuts. The tool shows that 8% of traders think the Fed will skip the cut next month.
“The stronger dollars and weaker bonds (higher yields) are currently a concern,” Hasegawa added in his note. “But this can be seen as a short-term response given that the bond market was overpriceeded in next year’s cuts.”
Deutsche Bank research analysts said they were looking at tips on what will come when Powell gave a speech on Tuesday. They added that traders should scrutinise new consumer spending data as it is scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, September 26th.
“Our US economists believe Core PCE’s growth is 0.22% over a month, from 0.3% in July,” the analyst wrote in a note shared. Decryption. Their forecasts for personal income and consumption slow to 0.3% compared to 0.4% in July. And that spending will rise by 0.5% and stay in July.
For now, Bitcoin options activity shows that traders are cashing at premiums rather than holding their breath for breakouts, according to Jake Ostrovsky, head of OTC, which is trading at the market maker of digital assets Wintermute.
“Flow is dominated by premium sales and upside caps,” he wrote in a note he shared. Decryption. He added that traders are selling call spreads between $125,000 and $150,000. That means you don’t expect Bitcoin to trade much higher than its range.
He added, “The overall stance is a range-bound position and carries the harvest, not an offensive directional bet.”
