Cryptocurrency investment products experienced net outflows of approximately $1.2 billion last week, with redemptions concentrated primarily in the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF.
The week ending November 7th was one of the highest printed weeks since late summer. Daily ETF data shows that de-risking took place for most sessions before a brief pause midweek.
The US Spot Bitcoin ETF lost a net negative $1.21 billion in five trades. Almost 1:1 match with global outflows tracked by CoinShares For listed digital asset products.
The concentration of US vehicles suggests an ETF-led reset rather than a widespread exit across all venues. Daily flows are aggregated as follows:
| day | US Spot BTC ETF, Net Flow (USD Million) |
|---|---|
| month | -186.5 |
| fire | -566.4 |
| water | -137.0 |
| tree | +239.9 |
| gold | -558.4 |
| total | -1,208.4 |
Since then, daily stock prices have gone from mixed to positive. According to Pharcyde, the market recorded a gain of $1.2 million on November 10th, and a gain of $524 million across the US Spot Bitcoin ETF on November 11th.
CoinShares’ previous report, covering the period ending November 3, recorded net outflows of $360 million, with the US leading the majority of redemptions. Bitcoin ETPs suffered a loss of $946 million, while Solana products remained positive due to the traction of US spot ETFs.
What ETF flows and derivatives are really telling us
This series of moves builds into last week’s tape of increased selling pressure and highlights how the US channel is setting its weekly direction. The same regional dynamics could explain record inflows in early October, when cash demand was concentrated in U.S. funds.
The attitude of derivatives changes with the flow. According to Coinalyze, the three-month annualized return across major venues remained close to 4-6%, but double digits were recorded during the pursuit phase.
Funding rates have fallen and total open interest in Bitcoin futures has receded, with CME’s page showing interest and volume softening compared to recent highs. This pattern is consistent with deleveraging and repositioning rather than a forced blowoff across the term structure.
More than $1 billion of long-term liquidations occurred across the majors during the decline, indicating leveraged length consolidation rather than new structural sellers.
Breadth is important when reading aloud. Of the $1.17 billion in global outflows, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF accounted for virtually all of it at minus $1.21 billion.
If the ETF is high in an outflow week and the basis is cooling, the next move tends to be determined by whether the ETF tape stabilizes first. If the daily ETF share price flips to a moderately positive range in the $150 million to $300 million range, Bitcoin price discovery typically locks in again as marginal flows change, followed by basis and open interest.
3 ways ETF resets can quickly turn bullish
Therefore, short-term maps depend on three observable channels.
- Notice the reset, then rebuild path. This path involves three consecutive green ETF sessions of approximately $200 million or more per day, with basis increases exceeding 8-10% per year during orderly fundraising periods. In that setup, open interest should gradually rebuild in CME and offshore venues. This configuration typically aligns with cash-driven demands rather than the pursuit of leverage.
- If CoinShares records another week of over $1 billion in outflows, the ETF tape shows 4-5 consecutive red sessions, the basis compresses towards 0-3%, and open interest bleeds down, we will extend the caution case. This would continue negative redemption pressures and extend time corrections.
- Maintain a reflexive snapback tail scenario. If the ETF has one big positive day of more than about $750 million, the weekly ledger will flip to net inflows and the basis will jump over 12-15%. If so, monitor your financing closely to avoid late-cycle leverage.
Sequences tend to follow a familiar rhythm. On Monday, a snapshot of CoinShares from the previous week will be released, and the daily ETF flowprint will update the marginal cash signal by the end of each session. Additionally, the term structure of derivatives and open interest adjusts as risks are added or removed.
How an ETF-led reset will shape Bitcoin’s next move
According to a CoinShares methodology note, the Flow Series captures listed ETP and ETF vehicles rather than off-exchange wallet rotation. Therefore, last week’s minus $1.2 billion should be understood as ETF-based activity rather than the capitulation of spot holders.
Fundamentals and funds are state variables. Levels of around 4% to 6% per annum represent a decline in leverage, which historically occurs before a more sustained advance occurs when cash demand returns.
The cross-market context is always consistent with the read flow. The US has had the fastest pace of both gains and losses since October, consistent with the spot Bitcoin ETF’s huge footprint in setting weekly direction.
None of the indicators mentioned establish new trends on their own. Taken together, this creates a risk reset framework that leaves room for restructuring should ETF inflows resume.
For traders and allocators planning for the next 2-4 weeks, the actual trigger is simple. Follow Pharside’s daily tape to see a 3-day green streak of over $200 million per day, and watch it approach 8-10% on a 3-month basis while funds are subdued.
Additionally, note that CME’s open interest is gradually increasing alongside offshore venues. In the negative case, we would need to be careful if the basis remains nearly flat and open interest dwindles, causing CoinShares to record another $1 billion in the red.
In the case of a rapid rebound, we would see a very large positive ETF day first, followed by a steepening of the term structure, followed by open interest.
What’s immediately clear from the latest print is that this week of outflows was driven by ETFs, not a market-wide unwind. This keeps the focus on the US ETF tape calling the turn as confirmation of basis and open interest.
Even though Bitcoin and Ether products led the redemptions, Solana and XRP products were a relatively resilient segment. The asset level split will be revealed in next Monday’s update.
